Bryan Breguet on his TooCloseToCall.ca blog has published a post about the initial version of his new seat projection model. He indicates it’s currently working strictly off of past election performance vs. current opinion polling data, and has yet to take into account the advantages incumbents often enjoy (amongst other tweaks he intends to make), but this first run does show the federal Greens winning both Elizabeth May’s seat, and also winning the adjoining riding of “Victoria”.
That’s a federal riding that overlaps with Andrew Weaver’s riding, and other provincial ridings where the BC Greens did extremely well. The federal Greens did come a strong second in Victoria in the 2015 election despite it being a very divisive election rife with strategic voting. The federal Greens are currently polling above their 2015 performance, and are likely to target that riding again in 2019, so it’s not an improbable suggestion that they might win it. It’ll be interesting whether factoring in an incumbency advantage for the current NDP MP in Victoria changes Bryan’s mind on that riding.
Too Close To Call’s 2017 prediction model for the BC election correctly predicted that the BC Greens would win the three ridings that they won. You wouldn’t know it from looking at his final projection which dropped the BC Greens down to just winning Andrew Weaver’s seat because Bryan ended up favouring some last minute riding polls that showed the Sonia Furstenau and Adam Olsen both under performing in their ridings, which ended up not being true which understandably annoyed Bryan. He’s done some impressive work and I follow everything that he publishes on Too Close To Call.