Federal polling update and analysis for 2017/Aug/22

Nik Nanos’ weekly tracking poll update is out and it shows the federal Greens at 4.92% nationwide. Highlights include 8.54% nationwide amongst 30-39 year-olds, and 11.51% support amongst British Columbians. No breakdown for either Vancouver Island, or Greater Victoria, was offered.

The trendline showed a big uptick in nationwide support for the Green Party of Canada after the BC election, and not just in BC but in several regions of the country, and then an extremely gradual overall drop since. At this point the federal Greens are still above their May 2017 BC-election levels, however.

To me it looks like a lot of excitement with voters being reminded that if the stars align that in a minority government a party with a handful of seats can wield a lot of influence. Since then, that reminder has been gradually tempered by the fact that such situations are unfortunately relatively rare in our first-past-the-post electoral system that creates false majorities and discourages collaboration and cooperation.

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